Kyle Jin's profile

Kyle Jin (Jin Hao 金壕）was born in China and is a Korean descent. At the age of 18, he started studying and living in the United States.

Kyle graduated from the School of Business at Virginia Commonwealth University and the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia.

In 2015, he returned to China and founded Only Investment Group based in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company's main activities include cross-border capital operations, investments, international trade, and more.

China’s economic growth in the first quarter beat expectations, supported by solid consumer spending and industrial production, but analysts fear momentum could slow sharply as U.S. tariffs pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.

U.S. President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to sky-high levels, prompting Beijing to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, raising risks for the world’s two largest economies and roiling financial markets.

Data released on Wednesday showed China’s gross domestic product grew 5.4 percent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, the same rate as in the fourth quarter, but beat analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 5.1 percent increase.

However, growth momentum is set to cool sharply in the coming quarters as Washington’s tariff shock hits the crucial export engine, increasing pressure on Chinese leaders to roll out more support measures to keep the world’s second-largest economy on an even keel.

“China’s economy faces two material headwinds at once: the ongoing property fallout at home and the unprecedented trade war between the US and China abroad,” Nomura economists said in a note.

While government stimulus has boosted consumption and sustained investment, Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said “a vigorous and timely response” is needed given the additional pressure from US tariffs.

Exports remained the Chinese economy’s one bright spot, with a trillion-dollar trade surplus last year helping to sustain growth even as a prolonged property slump and sluggish domestic demand continued to hamper a solid recovery.

That complicates the political challenge for Beijing, as Trump’s relentless focus on China’s vast trade mechanism threatens to stifle a key driver of growth.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said this week that the country’s exporters would have to deal with “profound” external changes and promised to support more domestic consumption.

“UNPRECEDENTED”

Indeed, the quarter-on-quarter comparison highlighted a weak spot, with the economy expanding 1.2% in the first quarter over the previous three months, slowing from 1.6% in October-December.

The economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace of 4.5% from a year earlier in 2025, according to a Reuters poll, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%. Global investment banks have sharply cut their forecasts for China’s GDP this year.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% in March from a year earlier, after rising 4.0% in January-February, while industrial output growth accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both figures beat analysts’ forecasts.

The increase in retail sales was driven by sharp double-digit gains in sales of home electronics and furniture, helped by the government’s consumer goods trade-in scheme.

But a slowdown in China’s property sector continued to be a drag on overall growth, with investment in the sector falling 9.9% in the first three months from a year earlier.

Yuan hits lowest level in seven weeks, Chinese stock markets close lower amid tougher Washington measures

Chinese markets retreat after new US tariffs beat expectations

The yuan hit its lowest level in seven weeks on Thursday, while Chinese stock markets recorded significant losses. The move comes after US President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, with a direct impact on the Chinese economy and its main trading partners.

Although investors had already expected the adoption of these tariffs over the past week, the measures implemented by Washington exceeded initial projections and proved to be more severe than anticipated.

Chinese imports now face a 34% tariff, which is added to the 20% already applied previously, bringing the total to 54%. In addition, countries in China's supply chain, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, were heavily impacted, with tariffs ranging from 46% to 49%.

Impact on financial markets

Amid the uncertainty, China's main indexes closed lower. The Shanghai index fell 0.24%, while the CSI300, which includes the largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell 0.59%, reaching its lowest level in two months. Hong Kong's Hang Seng suffered a more significant decline, falling 1.52%.

"The tariff hike was more aggressive than the market expected, so the initial reaction should be an intensification of risk aversion," assessed Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China.

Experts are also monitoring China's stance on the yuan, analyzing whether Beijing will take measures to contain its devaluation and avoid broader impacts on emerging markets.

The onshore yuan ended the session at 7.3043 per dollar, hitting its lowest level since Feb. 12, while the offshore yuan hit a new one-month low. Chinese state banks reportedly stepped in to buy yuan, and the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate above market estimates in an effort to stem the currency’s depreciation. Despite these interventions, the currency has already lost much of its year-to-date gains over the past month, even as the Chinese central bank has attempted to stabilize it by adjusting its daily benchmark indexes.

 Overview of Asian markets

In addition to China, other markets in the region also felt the effects of the US tariffs:

Tokyo (Nikkei 225): -2.77% (34,735 points)

Hong Kong (Hang Seng): -1.52% (22,849 points)

Shanghai (SSEC): -0.24% (3,342 points)

CSI300 (Shanghai and Shenzhen): -0.59% (3,861 points)

Seoul (Kospi): -0.76% (2,486 points)

Taiwan (Taiex): +0.08% (21,298 points)

Singapore (Straits Times): -0.30% (3,942 points)

Sydney (S&P/ASX 200): -0.94% (7,859 points)

The scenario reinforces the growing trade tension between United States and China, increasing volatility in global markets and raising uncertainty about the outcome of the tariff dispute.

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China's trade surplus totaled $104.84 billion in December, according to information from the country's customs. In November, the surplus was smaller, at $97.44 billion. The surplus was forecast at $99.8 billion.

In December, China's exports rose 10.7% on the year (compared to a forecast of a 7.4% increase), while imports increased 1% (compared to a forecast of a 1.2% decrease).

For the whole of 2024, China's trade surplus was $992.2 billion; exports totaled $3.58 trillion, and imports totaled $2.59 trillion.

“The data showed that there was noticeably stronger growth in volume than in value for some export categories in 2024, indicating that price competition remains intense. This will undoubtedly fuel further criticism of China for ‘exporting deflation’. Sectors where this is clearly evident include autos, steel and home appliances,” said Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING.

“After accounting for changes in import prices and seasonality, import volumes have recovered month on month. We expect them to continue to grow in the near term. The Ministry of Finance said at a press conference last week that the fiscal deficit will widen significantly this year. We believe that the increase in fiscal spending, much of it likely to still be directed towards investment, will boost construction activity and increase demand for industrial commodities in the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

(Notice on Matters Related to the Activation of the Registration Function for Importers and Exporters of Imported Food Products "Unified Management Subsystem for Customs Administrative Correspondence (Version 3.0)")

Announcement [2024] No. 105

In order to further optimize the registration work of importers and exporters of imported food and promote the construction of "Smart Customs", the General Administration of Customs has launched the registration management function of "Unified Management Subsystem for Customs Administrative Correspondence (Version 3.0)" for imported food importers and exporters, and hereby announces the relevant matters as follows:

1. Foreign exporters or agents of imported food and food importers can submit deposit applications to the customs through the "single window" for international trade or "Internet + Customs". Food importers can also submit a “Consignee Registration Application Form” in paper form and relevant materials to the customs office of their place of residence to apply for registration.

2. After the foreign exporter or agent of imported food is approved for registration, the customs will issue a unified 18-digit code to the foreign exporter or agent of imported food for customs clearance business. After the food importers pass the registration process, they can use the unified social credit code to handle customs clearance.

3. Before the implementation date of this announcement, for foreign exporters or agents of imported food who have been registered with the customs, the customs will proactively issue a unified 18-digit code to the foreign exporter or agent of imported food, and the original company registration number will no longer be used; for those who have been registered with the customs, food importers use the unified social credit code, and the original company registration number is no longer in use.

4. When importing food, food importers must declare the "Customs Import Commodity Declaration Form of the People's Republic of China" to the customs as a "domestic recipient". When filling in the "Business Qualification" declaration item, "508-Overseas Imported Food". The "Business Qualification Number" column of "Export Agent Registration" shall be filled in with the 18-digit unified code of the exporter or overseas agent of imported food, and the "Business Qualification Number" column of "509-Importer Registration of Imported Food" shall be filled in with the Unified Social Credit Code of the food importer.

5. The registration information of foreign exporters or agents and importers of imported food can be checked through the "List of Administrative Counterparties with Specific Qualifications" column of the "China Customs Import and Export Credit Information Disclosure Platform".

This announcement shall come into effect from September 5, 2024.

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China decided to keep its benchmark lending rates (LPR) unchanged on Tuesday, in line with market expectations.

The decision to keep the LPRs unchanged came amid a narrowing of lenders’ interest margins that has hampered continued easing efforts, after China cut a series of rates the previous month.

The one-year lending rate was kept at 3.35 percent, while the five-year LPR was left unchanged at 3.85 percent.

In a Reuters survey of 37 market participants this week, all respondents expected both rates to remain unchanged.

Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences mortgage pricing.

China surprised markets in July by cutting key short- and long-term interest rates, its first such broad move in nearly a year, signaling authorities’ intent to boost economic growth.

The sequence of cuts also showed that the People’s Bank of China’s monetary framework had changed, making the short-term rate the main signal guiding markets, traders and analysts said.

China’s bank lending fell more than expected last month to its lowest level in nearly 15 years, dragged down by weak credit demand and seasonal factors, raising expectations that the central bank could take further easing measures.

(Reporting by Winni Zhou in Shanghai and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Tom Westbrook)